David and Sue Abbott invested tons of time seeking the perfect home for their next stage in life. As baby boomers in their mid-60s, they wanted “a toes-up house,” said David. “A place you want to leave toes up with the coroner. Hopefully, you won’t have to go to a nursing home.”
They’ll soon move from Park Hill to one of Stapleton’s newest neighborhoods, delighted by the low-maintenance, ranch-style patio homes that feature “age-in-place” design — like 3-foot-wide doorways if wheelchairs become necessary, and generous space around showers and toilets “where you can stick a handicap rail if you need it,” said David.
They’re at the leading edge of the “Silver Tsunami,” the name used by experts to describe the population of aging boomers expected to double by 2030. Most want to age in place, which will dramatically impact Colorado’s suburbs, particularly Jefferson County, which now has the state’s largest older population, and Douglas County, home to the fastest-growing group of people over 60 in the United States.
Everything will be impacted, from tax revenues to transportation for older adults who can’t drive any longer but still live in suburbs built for cars. Policymakers and planners will need to retrofit their communities with transportation, housing and land-use patterns that help people keep their independence as long as possible, experts say, particularly after age 75 when frailty begins to increase.
PHOTOS: Colorado’s baby boomers look to age in place
The new reality can boggle the mind.
Recreation centers with a wealth of child-care services will need to refocus on exercise classes for older adults.
Suburbs will need not just sidewalks — but a continuous system of sidewalks at least 5 feet wide so that older adults, including those in wheelchairs, can get where they want to go.
Police officers need to be trained in detecting elder abuse, and school districts must consider building multipurpose schools designed for use by both kids and older adults. Businesses will need to consider things like snowbird programs that allow senior leadership talent to shuttle between two locations seasonally.
The eight metro counties that have 47 percent of Colorado’s older adults — Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin and Jefferson — are served by the Area Agency on Aging at the Denver Regional Council of Governments, which warns that the status quo of helping the older population isn’t sustainable.
“We’ve been talking with our local governments,” said senior planner Brad Calvert. “People are struggling with the immensity of the issue, how broad and deep the challenges are. The topic is so big, they don’t know where to start. “
Between 2000 and 2010, for the first time in state history, the 65-plus population grew at a faster rate than the state population: 32 percent compared with 17 percent.
Nationally, about 10,000 baby boomers will turn 65 every day until 2030. In Colorado, long home to a young population, the impact will be dramatic.
States like Hawaii and Minnesota have already created strategic plans for the aging population, but Colorado has not.
“There’s not been a long-term strategic plan on how we’re going to meet the needs that are already coming up with this aging population,” said Rich Mauro, senior policy and legislative analyst at DRCOG. “It’s not something we can put off any longer.”
The biggest changes are predicted for the Front Range and the resort communities of the Western Slope, although the entire state will be impacted: The 65-plus cohort is expected to grow by 150 percent by 2030.
“When you consider socio-economic conditions in the state, this aging (of the population) will affect almost every component,” said state demographer Elizabeth Garner, who has analyzed the impact of the aging population on everything from housing to the labor force.
About 1 million workers will age out of the labor force over the next 20 years, which amounts to about 37 percent of the current workplace, she said, a population of “people who tend to have a wealth of knowledge and productivity.”
That means industries from education to mining need to plan for succession.
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Public finance will also be impacted, because per-capita tax revenues to state and many local governments are forecast to decline. According to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, average income taxes, taxable expenditures and property taxes decline by age, after peaking in the 45- to 54-year-old range.
“Colorado has had a competitive advantage over the last 20 years because we had the largest share of our population in the highest-earning age group,” said Garner. “Now we’re shifting to where we’re more average, which is the first time Colorado has experienced that.”
The largest number of older adults lived in the inner cities before the 1970s, because the young adults were moving to the new suburbs in the ’50s and ’60s. Now that those young adults are aging in place, suburban America faces a seismic shift, and trends like “retrofitting suburbia” are already popping up in places like Wheat Ridge, which has the highest proportion of seniors in Jefferson County, which in turn has the state’s largest older population.
Two aging retail centers, built in the ’50s and ’60s, were demolished and replaced with a new 88-unit building of affordable housing for seniors that opened in 2012 with a waiting list of 600.
“Retrofits like these are providing opportunities for seniors to remain in the suburban communities they’ve long lived in while reducing their dependence on the automobile, reducing maintenance and the cost of living, and increasing opportunities for social interaction and walking to daily needs,” said Ellen Dunham-Jones, author of “Retrofitting Suburbia: Urban Design Solutions for Redesigning Suburbs.”
To help communities plan for such needs, this summer DRCOG will roll out a community assessment tool — a comprehensive questionnaire designed to help civic teams visualize their futures. Last year, it was successfully beta-tested in Lakewood, Lyons and Wheat Ridge, and demand from other suburbs is high.
“Already, we have four to five communities that want to start right away,” said Calvert.
Cities like Wheat Ridge have looked to the local leader, Jefferson County, which launched its Aging Well Project in 2008 with six work groups and experts in the field of aging to study critical issues like transportation, housing and supportive services.
It now has a 20-year strategic plan, and has created tools like the Housing Matrix to help developers decide whether a piece of land would be a good space for senior housing by rating the property for lighting, walkability, and proximity to transportation and medical facilities.
Douglas County started in 2012 and is now hard at work.
“By 2030, we think we’ll have 24 percent over 60,” said Barbara Drake, deputy county manager for Douglas County.
Last year, its Senior Initiative conducted 13 listening tours and two surveys of residents and service providers in communities like Castle Rock, Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree and Parker.
The services identified as most lacking were the same as those experienced by local governments with aging populations across the country: transportation and affordable housing.
On April 1, the group will present the board of county commissioners with a request to drill down on the transit issue with a study that would examine how well the county’s bus, rail and van systems might handle needs for the age wave.
Another need is better communication between service providers — the study found that only 25 of 40 pairs of organizations worked closely with each other.
And that problem, which will magnify when the age boom hits, isn’t unique to Douglas County.
Jean Klein, 80, who lives in Wheat Ridge, is currently struggling with that issue. It started in February, when she received approval to switch to a Medicare plan that better suited her needs.
“I’m still not in some systems, but in others I am,” she said. “I’ve spent hours and hours dealing with this. Finally, I found a man in the Department of Insurance for Colorado, who’s now trying to find out why some departments have no record of me. It’s so frustrating.”
Klein, who wants to help smooth the way for others, participated in strategic planning sessions for Wheat Ridge — and ended up at the forefront of a trend called NORCs.
These are naturally occurring retirement communities, neighborhoods or buildings comprised mostly of older adults aging in place. The idea is to surround them with community-based networks of health and supportive services so they can stay in their homes as long as possible.
She’s learning a lot.
“At a recent meeting, someone from the Seniors’ Resource Center mentioned how many thousands of dollars in funding goes unused because people don’t apply,” she said.
Wheat Ridge is now a pilot program for NORCs, having received a $1 million grant from the Colorado Health Foundation, and will work in partnership with organizations like Jewish Family Service of Colorado, which pioneered a smaller NORC in Edgewater.
Another popular option for aging in place is the national Village Movement, where neighbors come together to help each other instead of waiting for governments to find funding.
In Littleton, the Columbine Community Village started in 2012 to offer members volunteer assistance with everything from household chores to educational programs that keep them intellectually stimulated and socially connected.
Word of the movement is rapidly spreading through the suburbs.
“We’ve gotten a lot of people expressing interest in places like Golden, Lakewood, Arvada, Wheat Ridge and Centennial,” said Arnie Snyder, who started the Littleton village.
For people like Polly Strobel, 90, it’s the key to living independently at home.
“I’ve not had a car for a couple of years now, and I rely on people to drive me places,” said Strobel. “Every Monday morning, we do all the little chores I need, go to the library or the bank. But the big thing is getting groceries. … I carry home one sack, and she brings in the other three bags.”
Colleen O’Connor: 303-954-1083, coconnor@denverpost.com or twitter.com/coconnordp
For information on the community assessment tool from DRCOG, contact Brad Calvert at 303-480-6839 or bcalvert@drcog.org.
For information on the Village to Village movement, visit columbinecommunityvillage.org or call 303-730-6432 .
For information on NORCS, alison joucovsky, 303-597-5000 or ajoucovsky@jewishfamilyservice.org.
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